Insights

Mon 6/4/12 2:24 PM – Likelihood of Big S-T Move in Stocks

Stocks have sold off pretty hard since their peak on May 1 and are down roughly 10% on the major indexes. Interestingly, small stocks and Nasdaq stocks, normally a good bit more volatile have not lost significantly more than large stocks. The Stoxx 50 European index...

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Fri 6/1/12 1:44 PM – Record Low Mortgage Rates

One of the bright spots in this economic turmoil is how much it has lowered interest rates. If you have not refinanced your mortgage lately you should take a look. Current 15 year mortgage rate average - 2.75% Current 30 year mortgage rate average - 3.75% These rates...

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Fri 6/1/12 9:46 AM – Bad Jobs Report, China Slowing

Not a good day for stocks. Europe is down 1.2% - 3.0% today and the US dropped 1.5% when it opened in New York. The jobs report was just terrible. Only 69,000 new jobs were created last month. It takes nearly 100,000 new jobs just to absorb immigration, people turning...

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Thu 5/31/12 4:30 PM – Correction

I had incorrectly written earlier today that European banks that had bought sovereign debt in their country, due in large part to the carrot and stick incentives of the European Central Bank (ECB) as well as politicans in their country and which are now seeing the...

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Thu 5/31/12 11:37 AM – Economic News Today

We had a fair amount of US economic news today, all of it confirming a slight slowdown in the economy. The estimate of 1Q/2012 GDP growth was revised down from 2.1% to 1.9% First time claims for unemployment rose slightly, the 7th time in the last 8 weeks The estimate...

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Thu 5/31/12 11:27 AM – Cost of a Spanish Bank Bailout

The NY Times today put the total cost of bailing out Spanish banks at a total of $620 billion over several years. The bailout fund (European Stability Mechanism) which is scheduled to start up this summer has $867 billion in it. So, a bank bailout is do-able but of...

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Wed 5/30/12 8:39 AM – Greek, Spanish Woes Increase

Interest rates on Spain's 10 year bond rose to 6.6% today, close to the 7% seen as a tipping point. Rates on Italy's equivalent bond rose above 6%. Meanwhile, it was reported that the Spanish economy shrank again in the 1Q, unemployment is at 25% and talk continues...

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Tue 5/29/12 4:51 PM – Reversal or Bump?

There is a lot of bad news out there and plenty of belief that worse is yet to come regarding Euroe, particularly Spain and Greece. Spain's banking worries are really rising and it will likely have to dump tens of billions into them to prop them up, something that...

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