Insights
Fri 12/23/11 12:25 PM – A Very Simplified Version of the National Budget
I got this in an email. It does not give the source. The comments are those of the original writer. I have no reservations about having a balanced budget but plenty about having a balanced budget amendment. That’s because politicians are likely to take what they view...
Thu 12/22/11 2:15 PM – Sleigh Bells Ringing
Santa is such a last minute guy. Markets are up 4% this week here, Europe and Asia with another half day to go before Christmas. A typical Santa Claus rally keeps going the following week and into the new year. Volume will be light and that can amplify moves. The most...
Fri 12/20/11 3:26 PM – Why the Market is Up so Much Today
Yesterday I wrote that the traditional Santa Claus rally had been missing. Europe started the party early today, going up as much as 3% and the US markets have seen that and raised it, up as much as 4%. Even better, the market has continued to climb as the day has...
Mon 12/19/11 1:34 PM – Cloudy, with a Chance of Santa
No sign of Santa yet - the normal "Santa Claus rally" that runs the second half of December and often well into the first quarter is nowhere to be seen yet. Meanwhile, markets in Europe and the US continue the pattern of starting out the day well and seeing gains...
Fri 12/16/11 3:33 PM – ECB Finding a Back-Door Strategy to Prop Up Sovereign Debt
The European Central Bank (ECB) has refused to loan money directly to governments in order to bail them out or to buy more than limited quantities of their bonds. It has, however found a back-door way of doing the same. It is offering unlimited 3-year loans to banks...
Fri 12/16/11 9:46 AM – Is Consumer Price Index Right?
Today the CPI was reported as being flat from last year. What? - you say, how can that be since I pay more for things than I did last year? The answer is a little complex but simply put, because of the tremendous incentive for the government to understate the CPI - it...
Thu 12/15/11 11:20 AM – What is the Cost of Your 401k Plan?
There is a new government requirement that employers with a 401k plan disclose to participants the costs. If you are an employer, you need to look at your plan to find out the costs and see if they are as low as they should be. For the majority of people reading this...
Thus 12/15/11 11:05 AM – Real Unemployment is Much Worse
I ran across a very interesting article at this address http://seekingalpha.com/article/313733-what-is-the-real-unemployment-rate?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0 The article makes the point that if the same number of people were looking for work today as in 2007 the...
Thu 12/15/11 10:00 AM – Gold Drops 15%
Gold is now off 15% from its recent highs. As you know, I have an automatic sell rule when a security drops 15% so we will be selling gold. However, I like gold for the long term and see buying it back again at lower levels. It can go another 10-15% lower as people...
Thu 12/15/11 9:58 AM – Markets Bounce on Good US Economic Data
After 8 days of a declining market, stocks bounced higher in Europe and the US. In Europe, there is little reason to bounce other than simply technical trading reasons. Italian bond yields have spiked higher again after a very brief respite below 6%. The more people...
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